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Coding Is
Solved

A growing collection of bold predictions from tech leaders about AI replacing software engineers. Let time be the judge.

Last updated: April 6, 2026

10
Predictions
3
Expired
4
Ticking
3+
Years of hype

The Predictions

DA

Dario Amodei

CEO, Anthropic

“I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”
AI writes all code within 12 months
Said on March 10, 2025
Time since statement 1y 1m ago
Status Expired 28 days ago
CEO Speaker Series With Dario Amodei - Council on Foreign Relations
MZ

Mark Zuckerberg

CEO, Meta

“Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code.”
AI replaces mid-level engineers in 2025
Said on January 10, 2025
Time since statement 1y 3m ago
Status Expired 3 months ago
Meta Is Building AI That Can Write Code Like a Mid-Level Engineer - Entrepreneur
AM

Amjad Masad

CEO, Replit

“I don't think we're there yet, where they can run the entire company without hiring engineers, but that might be a year, 18 months away.”
Companies run without engineers in 12-18 months
Said on May 21, 2025
Time since statement 10 months ago
Time remaining 7 months left
Replit CEO says companies soon won't need software developers - Semafor
JH

Jensen Huang

CEO, NVIDIA

“It is our job to create computing technology such that nobody has to program and that the programming language is human. Everybody in the world is now a programmer — that is the miracle.”
Nobody needs to learn to code anymore
Said on February 12, 2024
Time since statement 2y 2m ago
NVIDIA CEO: Every Country Needs Sovereign AI - NVIDIA Blog

The AGI Debate

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang declared AGI has arrived. Most AI researchers disagree. Here's how his shifting claims compare to what experts actually mean by Artificial General Intelligence.

Jensen Huang's shifting definition

March 22, 2026 Lex Fridman podcast — when asked about AI capable of building a billion-dollar company
“I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI.”
Jensen Huang: We have achieved AGI now... sort of - Sherwood News
March 22, 2026 Same Lex Fridman interview — immediately qualifying his own AGI claim
“The odds of 100,000 of those agents building Nvidia (are) zero percent.”
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang claims AGI has been 'achieved' - Yahoo Finance

Google DeepMind — Levels of AGI

A peer-reviewed framework for measuring progress toward AGI. Current frontier models (GPT-4, Claude, Gemini) are at Level 1 out of 5.

1
Emerging We are here
Equal to or better than an unskilled human
2
Competent
At least 50th percentile of skilled adults
3
Expert
At least 90th percentile of skilled adults
4
Virtuoso
At least 99th percentile of skilled adults
5
Superhuman
Outperforms 100% of humans
Levels of AGI — Morris et al., Google DeepMind (arXiv)

What current AI still can't do

  • No causal reasoning — correlates patterns but doesn't understand cause and effect
  • Hallucination — still fabricates information with confidence
  • No persistent learning — cannot learn from new experiences in real time
  • No physical world understanding — fails at tasks trivial for humans
  • No metacognition — cannot monitor its own reasoning or recognize errors
  • Knowledge-bound — humans can reason about things they've never encountered; AI largely cannot